Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 1.300138 1.517572 1.759735 2.049403 2.386497 2.766460 3.227380
2024-12-15 0.949727 1.238432 1.596535 2.073275 2.691525 3.466645 4.513307
2024-12-22 0.727359 1.026261 1.426505 2.001472 2.806700 3.895361 5.481525
2024-12-29 0.643776 0.968316 1.430705 2.137211 3.190228 4.703521 7.048278
2025-01-05 0.531591 0.845169 1.316618 2.076523 3.271882 5.082919 8.042463
2025-01-12 0.443772 0.741440 1.211010 2.004951 3.315509 5.396993 8.964154
2025-01-19 0.376543 0.658282 1.122660 1.942849 3.357583 5.703268 9.901337
2025-01-26 0.339348 0.618611 1.097933 1.979319 3.562539 6.293762 11.381212
2025-02-02 0.322665 0.611606 1.126614 2.109853 3.944035 7.227188 13.574659
2025-02-09 0.298421 0.586906 1.119767 2.173830 4.211553 7.988381 15.551443
2025-02-16 0.272845 0.555750 1.096308 2.202253 4.413949 8.651073 17.423646
2025-02-23 0.247182 0.520595 1.060166 2.200142 4.554704 9.209904 19.159232
2025-03-02 0.223217 0.486282 1.022652 2.193267 4.691260 9.789645 21.041403
2025-03-09 0.204532 0.460551 0.999474 2.213602 4.888343 10.519735 23.343440
2025-03-16 0.179799 0.418022 0.935207 2.136709 4.866497 10.789042 24.690672
2025-03-23 0.175633 0.420969 0.969476 2.281560 5.351317 12.204479 28.760850
2025-03-30 0.156403 0.386230 0.915056 2.216792 5.351008 12.546353 30.426416
2025-04-06 0.138769 0.352751 0.859043 2.140407 5.312636 12.795204 31.904142
2025-04-13 0.123876 0.323869 0.810051 2.074129 5.289210 13.074711 33.491310
2025-04-20 0.116595 0.313213 0.803835 2.113052 5.530758 14.019143 36.854957
2025-04-27 0.115136 0.317500 0.835354 2.252362 6.045585 15.699615 42.319491
2025-05-04 0.110059 0.311397 0.839521 2.320640 6.384342 16.977325 46.900409
2025-05-11 0.103611 0.300620 0.830038 2.350973 6.625673 18.032578 51.025025